WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS
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The Foreword For This Week
Eventful weekend. Or…?
To the readers who follow me, I was very vocal about certain risks the moment the media started blabbing about a threat from Iran. If you followed this blog long term, and so so in the media as well, it is not news that Iran has been a backer of various militia activities in the red sea as well as supplier of military material and drones for Russia. The BRICS nations visually come to light through such.
Now, the weekend passed and saw a relatively boring unfolding, sorry to say. 99% of missiles and drones shut down, US helped Israel with countermeasure defense. On my telegram I outlined my thoughts and scenarios for when I think this event could become important. Israel attacked a consulate and generals were killed, IRAN did a non-eventful counter-strike just to poke the west and Israel, and now Israel has responded with intentions to answer back “at the same price.”
Will if Israel answers back at the same price I would expect jack shit to happen. Absolutely boring and uneventful.
However, I think the volatility could ensure coming into the opening here and I am presently observing the open of the CME.
Bitcoin took a strong hit over the weekend as I was anticipating something to take place related to Iran to crash Bitcoin, acting as a visual mirror of what could happen in the stock market as well. On telegram I highlighted the potential of regaining the 64000 level as the opening on BTC, and if so, I think we have a foreseeable pause in the war escalation picture right now and the markets have been “overreacting”, so to speak.
So… The three scenarios I am watching that could be important, are:
US will NOT participate in a counter-attack on Iran. Israel, depending on the damage they do, may have to engage in defense measures if Iran decides to answer back with big guns to whatever Israel will fuck around with (for whatever reason.)
Will Israel actually answer back “at the same price” this i suspect this will de-escalate easily and we go back to status quo in terms of triggers and events that can move the markets.
Iran or US in any ways, related to israel or not, engage in combat, have effects on the world defense treaties? I think the aircraft carrier is parked there completely unrelated to Gaza, so this could be interesting to watch. Something external could take place forcing the US to engage in the middle east.
I think, currently, nr 2 is the most likely.
Aside geopolitical tensions, I think we can get volatility on Monday and/or Tuesday. The markets will be fucked around with the Iran attack as an excuse. Plus, retail sales on Monday is a significant heavy hitter and Powel on Tuesday will not go quiet either.
It seems ot me the focus on this week will be early on, expecting the weekly ranges to unfold rather quickly. I would like that, at least initially, to the risk-off side.
So, what is my bias for this week? See below!
DXY/Dollar/FX: Bullish on Dollar.
Gold / Silver: Bullish.
Equities: Bearish
Bitcoin: Cautiously Bearish.
Oil: Bullish
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