Absolutely Insane Profit Last Week - Weekly Analysis 02-19-2024
Look at that mad 2% equity curve
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS
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The Foreword For This Week
People,
A good week has passed us, and with it came a great result for the blog.
As is seen on the 2% equity curve, some pretty mad results was printed recently. Needless to say, this is absent of fees, commissions and slippage.
Still, this may be the highest recorded net RR win-streak in a week(ish) recorded period of time.
So.
We are standing before a Monday holiday, into Canadian CPI with high-hitting back and forth volatility risks on Thursday.
Highly indicating strong priceaction Tuesday and Wednesday.
NVIDIA NVDA 0.00%↑ has MASSIVE earnings on Wednesday as well
I am preparing for those.
On the geopolitical side, it could be reasonable to expect some sort of rapid advancement by the Russian military in Ukraine. I am watching what sort of impacts that may have should the Donetsk front line start surrounding Kiev.
Many historic war maps played both WW1, WW2, are very similar. Once the strategic front line collapse, there will be a very rapid advance to nearby fortifications and to me, the only real one is Kiev.
The failure of development of military machines for Ukraine could quickly accelerate the advancement to a front line surrounding Kiev, much like how the Soviets shoveled back the Germans to the Berlin outskirts, with months until the capital even then collapsed.
It is impossible to predict what market movements may spawn as the market will “price in” or simply resort to chaos. Worth keeping in mind for sure.
Weekly Blog Performance
At a LAST tracking date 02-17-2024 The blog has Since 01-01-2023 the following statistics:
! STATS DO NOT INCLUDE COMMISSION & FEES ! -
Current Long Term Trackers / Trades:
(As shown in the dates visible in the screenshots: If None, It means no long term trackers.)
FREE Investor/Long Term Perspective
(My Expectation/Analysis The Next 2-8 Weeks.)
Dollar Index (EURUSD, GBPUSD, FX)
I really do not hold any short term or mid term bias on dollar and without it I can’t honestly give a direction longer term yet. This week is light in news and I do not have a sense with that regard that could spawn a move.
I WOULD observe however how the equities market behave with the highly anticipated NVDA earnings on Wednesday.
Stock Market Triad Index Futures
In an ideal world, I favor the equities market trading higher towards the 5100 figure BEFORE the earnings, but we may also chop around here below 5060 before the earnings, allowing us to be sent higher.
Either way, as it looks right now, I am bullish on equities. I may share an update tomorrow on the substack chat in terms of actionable trades or something I am looking for.
Commodity Futures
Gold looks more clear. I think in line with the Dollar running higher potentially, gold should see lower. Very short term swing though that could materialize higher in the aftermath of a downmove.
In my last blog, I shared a red arrow for everyone to read indicating I was a bit longer term bearish on gold.
This call turned out to be very true, allowing gold to quickly demolish any bulls and run below the 2k figure.
I am posting an orange arrow for buyside on gold, meaning I am softly looking for buys here. If the dollar reveals something to me, I would possibly like to be a gold buyer.
Oil continues to be scary here. But I suspect dips are to be bought. No arrow to work with here however, but if I had to guess right now, on a grey arrow, this is it:
Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum)
I am bullish for the Sell-The-News ETF traders and a new bulltrap should come to my mind should we get above 50k. I liked the sharp rejection of 50k and its only psychologically relevan and post-ETF relevant to see another attempt at it.
In my last blog, I shared to all readers that I was bullish for a move higher on bitcoin into the 52k figure.
This turned out to be an excellent call, reaching the target of the arrow and some consolidation.
Presently, I do not see anything that should prevent us from moving higher on dips. I will however say this: With the fundamentals backing this market behind us, and with a looming FED rate cut approaching, I am suspecting a bearish longer term move in equities market will make the crypto market fall as well. However, given the volatility in bitcoin surpassing that of equities, I would give the benefit of doubt on bitcoin as long as it stays above 43k.
On a very low grey arrow, I think as long as BTC does not hit 43k, we should still press into the remainder of the 53-59k trading range.
I do NOT have anything specific for the substack chat or in the short term timeframe for now, as I have not prepared my own precision analysis either. You will however be updated on something I engage in during the week.
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Theo
DISCLAIMER: All views and opinions expressed in this blog are exclusively my own. I share public views from my week to week studies, which may include Futures, Stocks, Politics, Bonds, Forex & Cryptocurrencies. I promote NOT action is taken on any of these views. Action taken involves significant risk, and with margin you can lose everything. YOU are responsible for such action, the entire cost and risk and effort. YOU are responsible for your decisions, actions, trading and investment decisions. Owners/Writers/Authors/Moderators, representatives, references, its principals, members & Substack including ALL comments, posts and topics and reactions, are NOT affiliated with securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either in the U.S. CFTC nor Securities And Exchange Commission or any other regulatory authority. You are explicitly agreeing to these terms by reading this newsletter/blog. Any pictures / charts posted here are credit to TradingView & ForexFactory.
Theodor is a STUDENT of financial markets and economics. Everything written in this blog is to be considered ONLY a personal journal. No claims of profitability or high probability trades. There is no purpose here to advertise a signal service. Stay tuned, follow along, and conclude yourself whether this information is useful to you for your own educational edification, and/or, your investments and trades.
Calls, trades and formal analysis in blog WILL NOT be edited. Make sure you track and verify each call in real-time for you to assess the precision of the work done in this blog. The Substack CHAT has NO edit function, everything is live, transparent, No Bullshit.
Any mention or use of the word “Trade” is not incentivization for you to take a trade. It is used here as an intention of communicating a “study” of would could in theory be an actual trade setup.
Theodor will occasionally, once or twice a month, be present in the public telegram chat to answer questions to followers. Theodor will NORMALLY be disconnected from his subscriber/follower base as to perform 100% and provide the best content and service.
I will post updates on Substack Chat, Twitter & Telegram. Make sure you follow me on ON ALL. ESPECIALLY the Substack Chat, as I Prompt specific Trade Guidelines for educational studies based on blog calls.
Eventually, I may be posting videos to youtube. Give me a follow there as well.
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F.A.Q & Guide
(How do I use the information in this blog?)
That is entirely up to you. You can just follow in, subscribe, or become a founder. What I recommend you to do is to download ANY metatrader 4 platform (for starters) on desktop or phone or even a futures broker, and open a DEMO account. A FAKE money account. You can use that to study with me the same way I do. You can find guides on youtube how to use a metatrader 4 demo account to teach you how to place fake money orders with me.
I am never going to tell you to use real money.
(How do we know that the trades are not fake?)
I have a decent following now with a public telegram group as well. Substack does not have an edit button and in my excel sheet I put all trades that are placed in the substack at the same time for verification. The only way I could cheat is if I deleted BOTH the substack chat release and on the excel sheet, but with 100 active readers, I could risk being called out for it. So there is a small element of trust. I have not deleted a single trade.
(Why should I become a paid subscriber, or a founder?)
A free follower of my blog, the weekly blogs, will be exposed to investment ideas, usually.
A paid subscriber will get precise trades to execute on.
A founder will get analysis and journals from me to actually learn to use the tools I have to learn the same way.
(How exactly are you sharing trades if I am subscriber?)
I will be posting a screenshot in my substack chat. You MUST download the app or use the website to follow my chat, and use some kind of notification. Once the screenshot of the trade is posted, you can see the entry, stoploss and target, and copy it for your own fake money study.
Once I post it, I will add it on my excel spreadsheet. I HIGHLY RECOMMEND YOU MAKE AN EXCEL SPREADSHEET FOR MY TRADING TOO THE SAME WAY I DID, to verify my trading your own way.
If my trade has moved a bit, I usually allow around 0.05 RR of room to still post trade on blog. If more, I will not include it.
(You post a lot of trades on substack and it is hard to follow. What do I do?)
Know this: You do not need to take all my trades to follow along. One a week, or even one a month, could be enough.
What I recommend is pick one market, or even all, if you have time. I will be posting the NAME of the market I have taken a trade on, so you can easily search for it.
There will also be subscriber-only blogs if I see some ideas during the day but I have not taken action on it yet.
(Your trades are too fast for me to copy as a subscriber with fake money. What do I do?)
Here is a small summary of how my trading usually looks like:
Crypto (BTCUSD, ETHUSD): Trades take more than 12 hours averagely.
Indices (SNP 500 ES, Nasdaq NQ, Dow YM) will often be less than 20 minutes.
Forex: Often less than 20 minute in duration
Commodities: An hour or more.
You can choose which markets you want to follow me with, but even 20 minutes can be a good amount of time if you can copy a fake money trade with me that yields at least 0.5 RR, if you are entering late from my trade call.
Remember, I usually post blogs or longer term trades for those who wish to hold longer trades, and my crypto trades are usually longer in duration as well.
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